Thursday, January 31, 2013
The Hidden Truth About NRM-UPDF’S Coup Talk
By Bakampa Brian Baryaguma
[Dip. Law (First Class)–LDC; Cert. Oil & Gas–Mak; LLB (Hons)–Mak; Dip. LP Candidate–LDC]
There has been a lot of hogwash peddled around by the leaderships of both the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) and the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) that the army will take over Government if Parliament does not behave and conduct itself in a manner that upholds its credibility and legitimacy before the people of Uganda. These nonsensical statements were first made by the Minister for Defence, Honourable Crispus Kiyonga, while appearing before one Parliamentary Committee. Then President Yoweri Museveni weighed in with the same remarks at the recently concluded NRM MPs’ retreat at the National Leadership Institute, Kyankwanzi (NALI-K). Lastly, was the Chief of Defence Forces, General Aronda Nyakairima, stating the same and advising Parliamentarians to stand warned. All this came on the heels of the uproar following the dubious death of Butaleja Woman MP Cerinah Nebanda. I characterize these comments as “hogwash” or “nonsensical” simply because as the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) President, Major General (Rtd) Mugisha Muntu said, it is all foolish talk. Though foolish however, underneath it lies a more sinister motive than is apparent to the ordinary mind. Dear reader, there is a plot to clandestinely impose the First Son, Brigadier Muhoozi Kainerugaba, on the presidency. How? You may ask.
The best and preferred way is to bring him through the normal political process through the NRM party primaries and general presidential elections. By 2015, this man will be a Major General. His father will stand for president in 2016 and definitely win. By 2017, Muhoozi will be a Lieutenant General and by the time we hold the 2021 general presidential elections, he will be promoted to full General and immediately retired from the army, so that he can comfortably join active and partisan politics under the aegis of NRM. This military stint is important because it will give him an unfettered command of the army which is a key player in our politics and also boost his appeal to the Ugandan electorate that is fascinated by military prowess. So, our dear Muhoozi will stand in the NRM primaries and win the party Chairmanship and then stand for President in an election manned by his father, since in Uganda we do not dissolve Government during elections. Woe unto you if you expect him to lose in such an election. He will win. Remember the Botswana experience with the Khamas.
However, the political tide seems to be blowing unfavourably and changing pretty so fast that it is becoming unpredictable. The political scheme may not work out as expected because NRM and Ugandans in general, are growing tired, jittery and impatient of the Musevenis. They are eager to throw them out at the earliest opportunity possible. So, it may not be possible to smoothly and safely smuggle Muhoozi to the presidency hence the adoption of Plan B – the coup. Here, a select group of army officers loyal to Brig. Muhoozi will purport to overthrow the Government of President Museveni and replace it with that of his son. More or less like what happened with the Kabilas in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Thereafter, they will promise to hold presidential elections in about six months just to appease the national and international community in a bid to gain legitimacy and just like any other of its kind, that election will be a mere sham and a mockery of democracy.
My dear friend, all this is due to the fact that President Museveni does not trust anybody else with his safety and security after leaving power other than himself or a member of his family. Yet he badly wants to leave the political scene peacefully unlike Moi or Gadaffi who were forced out of office.